662
FXUS61 KILN 230029
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
829 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK, WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PRETTY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MITIGATE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.
COOLER THAN NORMAL YET AGAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY AS
THE HIGH STARTS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BEGIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH, BUT ANY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE STILL DOMINANT RIDGING OVER
THE MID OHIO VALLEY.
INCREASING WAA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S, BUT STILL EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY, WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
S/WV MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN S/WV WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
(LOWER TO MID 70S) WITH LOWS REMAINING MILD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST (LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST).
COOLER AIR, SLOW CLEARING FROM THE NORTH, AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH, THEN AWAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COOL LOWS IN THE 40S WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN, AND THUS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM/MODERATE INTO
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL THIN SOME
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR
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