375
FXUS61 KILN 240123
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
923 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL THEN EXIT ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS AND DRIER AIR BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS (CALM AT TIMES) AND SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
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UNDER A QUASI MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST (BRINGING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS) WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES, BRINGING
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE/DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO OCCUR BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MORE TIED TO
THE DIURNAL CYCLE/MAX HEATING GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
FORCING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TEAMS UP
WITH A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY, LOWER TO MID 70S, WHILE FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BY MORNING (LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST).
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, REMAINING IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY. CHILLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW WILL START ANOTHER WARMING TREND ON
MONDAY. AFTER LOWS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE, HIGHS WILL RECOVER
NICELY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
THE RETURN TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY WILL LOWER BACK INTO
THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT LEAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THOUGH IF THERE IS ANY
PREVAILING DIRECTION FOR THE WEAK FLOW, IT MAY BE OUT OF THE ESE.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE SSE, THOUGH THEY SHOULD
STILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS COVERED BY PROB30 GROUPS IN EACH OF THE TAFS.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, IF STORMS DEVELOP, SOME BRIEF
MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS
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