966
FXUS61 KILN 241052
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATER COVERAGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. WITH MODEST CAPE AND VERY WEAK SHEAR, NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ORGANIZED.
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
BEING WARMER IN NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER.
MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON A MINOR IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
AFTER 06Z WHICH RESULTS IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUITE A
BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR, ALTHOUGH THAT WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
H5 SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING THE FORCING TO HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST COVERAGE IN PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE EVENING TIMEFRAME AS A
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX.
CAMS SUGGEST THAT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE
LATE EVENING HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN IN/WESTERN OH, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A COOLER
AIR MASS TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST. WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING CLEAR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. SOME FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF I-70, BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED A MENTION YET GIVEN THE MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO FORM NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SITTING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S BY TUESDAY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. WITH THIS TROUGHING FEATURE MOVING INTO A
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. THE PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL OUT IN
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A FORCING MECHANISM AT PLAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. HAVE
CONTINUED TO JUST USE A NARROW WINDOW OF PROB30 TO INDICATE THE
PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. MID LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE AT THIS STAGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
UP TO 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EVEN
GREATER POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page