927
FXUS61 KILN 241628
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1228 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WILL EVOLVE INTO A WARM FRONT
AND MOVE TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. WITH THE
SOUTH WIND AND INCREASED MOISTURE FOUND BEHIND THIS FRONT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHERN CWA
MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S, DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS FROM EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MODEST CAPE AND VERY WEAK SHEAR, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
ORGANIZED.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER.
MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON A MINOR IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
AFTER 06Z WHICH RESULTS IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUITE A
BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR, ALTHOUGH THAT WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
H5 SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING THE FORCING TO HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST COVERAGE IN PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE EVENING TIMEFRAME AS A
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX.
CAMS SUGGEST THAT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE
LATE EVENING HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN IN/WESTERN OH, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A COOLER
AIR MASS TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST. WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING CLEAR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. SOME FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF I-70, BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED A MENTION YET GIVEN THE MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO FORM NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SITTING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S BY TUESDAY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. WITH THIS TROUGHING FEATURE MOVING INTO A
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. THE PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS A BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL OUT IN
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A FORCING MECHANISM AT PLAY.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO CVG/LUK/ILN IN THE LATE
DAY, THEN SPREAD NWD TO DAY DURING THE EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING IN
THE SOUTH. CMH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS TODAY,
BUT CUTTING THE CHANCES HERE WHILE THERE ARE STORMS IN THE PROXIMITY
OF CENTRAL OHIO IS A POTENTIAL PITFALL IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
WHAT FEW STORMS THAT MAY BE LINGERING THROUGH 00Z WILL QUICKLY DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, A FEW INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM OVERNIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE, IT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE
CMH AND DAY TERMINALS. THIS PROBABILITY ATTM IS QUITE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE ADDRESSED IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION.
ANY MVFR CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SCATTERED DECK. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING SOME IFR CIGS CENTERED AROUND DAYBREAK FOR A 2-3 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE DEWPOINT EARLY ON. THE INTERSECTION OF THE
T/TD SATURATION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BREAKING UP
TOWARDS 14Z OR SO. THIS SATURATION LAYER WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD,
BRINGING THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS A FEW
HOURS LATER TO ILN AND THEN DAY/CMH. THESE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LIE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND MIX OUT
IN A SHORTER, BUT LATER PERIOD OF TIME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
MORNING CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY SLIM FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. LOOKS LIKE
INITIATION IS MORE OR LESS DEPENDENT ON H5 S/W ACTIVITY IN SW FLOW
ALOFT, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE/TIME AND VARIES WIDELY FROM ONE
MODEL TO ANOTHER. GFS IS QUITE STRONG IN THIS REGARD BUT SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER OF AVAILABLE MODELS, SO FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARDS BEING PRECIP-FREE AND RAMP UP AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...FRANKS
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