074
FXUS61 KILN 241957
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
357 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. WARM AND
MOIST AIR AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES BY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS IN EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT.
A GOOD BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY DROP FAIRLY UNIFORMLY TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THE MORNING, THOUGH
THE AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE OF CONVECTION. THESE STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S, WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING LARGE SWINGS THAT
CAN TYPICALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
WILL BE OFFSET BY SOME WEAK SHEAR TO CONTINUE WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES, IT WILL MARK THE END OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FURTHER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ITS
PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGH ALSO PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GREAT LAKES, NEW ENGLAND, AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARRIVE OVER THE
REGION. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S (LOW CHANCE OF FROST) WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. COOL LOWS IN
THE 40S WILL WARM UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS POISED TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA, AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WARM,
HUMID AIR WILL BE ADVECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COUPLE WITH AT
LEAST MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PERHAPS EVEN ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH). CIPS
ANALOGS, CSU ML, AND SPC ALL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS
GENERICALLY IN THE HWO UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. AFTER LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/WV ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO CVG/LUK/ILN IN THE LATE
DAY, THEN SPREAD NWD TO DAY DURING THE EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING IN
THE SOUTH. CMH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS TODAY,
BUT CUTTING THE CHANCES HERE WHILE THERE ARE STORMS IN THE PROXIMITY
OF CENTRAL OHIO IS A POTENTIAL PITFALL IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
WHAT FEW STORMS THAT MAY BE LINGERING THROUGH 00Z WILL QUICKLY DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, A FEW INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM OVERNIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE, IT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE
CMH AND DAY TERMINALS. THIS PROBABILITY ATTM IS QUITE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE ADDRESSED IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION.
ANY MVFR CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SCATTERED DECK. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING SOME IFR CIGS CENTERED AROUND DAYBREAK FOR A 2-3 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE DEWPOINT EARLY ON. THE INTERSECTION OF THE
T/TD SATURATION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BREAKING UP
TOWARDS 14Z OR SO. THIS SATURATION LAYER WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD,
BRINGING THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS A FEW
HOURS LATER TO ILN AND THEN DAY/CMH. THESE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LIE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND MIX OUT
IN A SHORTER, BUT LATER PERIOD OF TIME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
MORNING CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY SLIM FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. LOOKS LIKE
INITIATION IS MORE OR LESS DEPENDENT ON H5 S/W ACTIVITY IN SW FLOW
ALOFT, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE/TIME AND VARIES WIDELY FROM ONE
MODEL TO ANOTHER. GFS IS QUITE STRONG IN THIS REGARD BUT SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER OF AVAILABLE MODELS, SO FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARDS BEING PRECIP-FREE AND RAMP UP AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS
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