876
FXUS61 KILN 250137
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
937 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. WARM AND
MOIST AIR AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES BY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS WANED THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHOUT MUCH OF A SOURCE OF
DEFINED FORCING, ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT, COULD BE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY, THOUGH FOR NOW THIS APPEARS LIKE AN
ISOLATED CONCERN AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS IN EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT.
A GOOD BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY DROP FAIRLY UNIFORMLY TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND DURING THE MORNING, THOUGH
THE AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE OF CONVECTION. THESE STORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S, WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING LARGE SWINGS THAT
CAN TYPICALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
WILL BE OFFSET BY SOME WEAK SHEAR TO CONTINUE WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES, IT WILL MARK THE END OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FURTHER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ITS
PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGH ALSO PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GREAT LAKES, NEW ENGLAND, AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARRIVE OVER THE
REGION. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S (LOW CHANCE OF FROST) WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. COOL LOWS IN
THE 40S WILL WARM UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS POISED TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA, AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WARM,
HUMID AIR WILL BE ADVECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COUPLE WITH AT
LEAST MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PERHAPS EVEN ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH). CIPS
ANALOGS, CSU ML, AND SPC ALL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS
GENERICALLY IN THE HWO UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. AFTER LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/WV ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MID 70S.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM SEEM
HIGHEST AT THE KCVG/KLUK SITES COMPARED TO THE OTHERS. OVERNIGHT,
THERE WILL REMAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS THAN
TODAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SHRA WITH VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMING OR LOCATIONS, WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION, MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS WELL, PARTICULARLY AFTER 18Z. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS
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