321
FXUS61 KILN 250756
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
356 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STILL SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT WAVE CAN
ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THEN IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS ABOUT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES THIS
LIMIT INSTABILITY AND IT APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE QUITE A BIT. SO
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS, NOT EXPECTING THAT ACTIVITY
TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE SHOWERS. IF INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
WITH MODEST SHEAR AT BEST, THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE LOW. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL
RISE, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STILL EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 AS TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
HERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. A
LONGWAVE H5 RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THAT
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S, HIGHLIGHTING THE
HUMID AIR MASS THAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO
MENTION GIVEN THE MODIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME AS THE H5
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH. THIS TROUGHING
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENTLY,
PRIMARY SEVERE WINDOW APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL ITERATIONS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AND
MEANDER AROUND THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR CWA.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO START WITH A MID DECK IN PLACE. SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
KCMH/KLCK AND KILN COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 12Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN FALL TO IFR. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER, ALTHOUGH THAT IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF TIMING. HAVE INCLUDED A RELATIVELY BROAD PROB30
DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT
REGARD.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
23Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AS THE FRONT
PASSES, BUT EXPECT TO FALL BACK TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...
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