655
FXUS61 KILN 251458
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1058 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MORNING UPDATE WAS CENTERED ON TIMING THE VERY SLOW NEWD MOVEMENT OF
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCT EMBEDDED THUNDER. FIRST AREA IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF METRO CINCINNATI AND EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND WILL AFFECT THE CWA SOUTHEAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CIRCLEVILLE THROUGH 2 PM. THE NEXT AREA HAS A
LEADING EDGE THAT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWEST CWA GENERALLY ALONG/NW OF
RICHMOND-VERSAILLES-WAPAK LINE. THE LINE OF CITIES REPRESENTS A SE
SECTION OF THE AREA THAT APPEARS TO BE PEELING APART TOWARDS THE
MAIN BODY TO THE WNW. BETWEEN THESE TWO SECTIONS IS A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS THAT IS FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MODERATE
RAINFALL THAT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED FROM DOWNTOWN CINCY TO THE
NORTHWEST TO CONNERSVILLE AND CAMBRIDGE CITY IN EAST CENTRAL IN.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA GIVEN THE
PREVAILING RAIN THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON., SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ABOUT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES THIS LIMIT INSTABILITY AND IT
APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE QUITE A BIT. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, NOT EXPECTING THAT ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
SHOWERS. IF INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH MODEST SHEAR AT BEST,
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STILL EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 AS TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
HERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. A
LONGWAVE H5 RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THAT
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S, HIGHLIGHTING THE
HUMID AIR MASS THAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO
MENTION GIVEN THE MODIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME AS THE H5
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH. THIS TROUGHING
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENTLY,
PRIMARY SEVERE WINDOW APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL ITERATIONS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AND
MEANDER AROUND THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR CWA.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE ARE SOME MVFR CEILINGS FROM KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK WHICH MAY COME
AND GO FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOWER CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 00Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BUT THEN THEY WILL SETTLE BACK INTO
MVFR AND MAY EVEN REACH IFR BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...
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