472
FXUS61 KILN 251814
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
214 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MORNING UPDATE WAS CENTERED ON TIMING THE VERY SLOW NEWD MOVEMENT OF
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCT EMBEDDED THUNDER. FIRST AREA IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF METRO CINCINNATI AND EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND WILL AFFECT THE CWA SOUTHEAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CIRCLEVILLE THROUGH 2 PM. THE NEXT AREA HAS A
LEADING EDGE THAT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWEST CWA GENERALLY ALONG/NW OF
RICHMOND-VERSAILLES-WAPAK LINE. THE LINE OF CITIES REPRESENTS A SE
SECTION OF THE AREA THAT APPEARS TO BE PEELING APART TOWARDS THE
MAIN BODY TO THE WNW. BETWEEN THESE TWO SECTIONS IS A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS THAT IS FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MODERATE
RAINFALL THAT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED FROM DOWNTOWN CINCY TO THE
NORTHWEST TO CONNERSVILLE AND CAMBRIDGE CITY IN EAST CENTRAL IN.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA GIVEN THE
PREVAILING RAIN THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON., SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ABOUT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES THIS LIMIT INSTABILITY AND IT
APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE QUITE A BIT. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, NOT EXPECTING THAT ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
SHOWERS. IF INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH MODEST SHEAR AT BEST,
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STILL EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 AS TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
HERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. A
LONGWAVE H5 RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THAT
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S, HIGHLIGHTING THE
HUMID AIR MASS THAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO
MENTION GIVEN THE MODIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME AS THE H5
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH. THIS TROUGHING
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENTLY,
PRIMARY SEVERE WINDOW APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL ITERATIONS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AND
MEANDER AROUND THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR CWA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LARGE SPACE WITHOUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOUND JUST SW OF
ILN TO CMH/LCK. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD ILN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, BUT
STAY OUT OF CMH/LCK SPHERE OF CONCERNS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. HOWEVER,
SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN THE RETURN-FREE AREA AND SOME LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING LATER IN THE EVENING. AS FOR
DAY, CONVECTION AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINAL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK UP TOWARDS 22Z ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD HIT DAY TOWARDS 05Z, AND
THE REMAINING TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-07Z. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND
IFR OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER AIR UNDERCUTS A SURFACE
LAYER THAT IS FULLY SATURATED.
THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW
MORNING, THEN LIFT AS THEY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND BREAK UP WITH
THE SETTING SUN. THIS WILL OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AT
DAY AS THE APEX OF THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR LIES FROM NW TO SE AND
CUTS THROUGH IT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND THEN 10-14KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...FRANKS
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