024
FXUS61 KILN 251953
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK UP THIS EVENING IN FAVOR OF JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS,
PRIMARILY WITHOUT ANY THUNDER THOUGH THAT CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED
OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWEST CWA THIS EVENING, AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOUND ALONG IT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM AS
DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT - BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF CINCINNATI, AND NORTH OF I-74 WEST OF CINCY.
FURTHER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, THE FRONT WILL TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO
WORK THROUGH, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS THE PREDAWN HOURS AT PORTSMOUTH.
READINGS HERE WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S.
OVERCAST SKY COVER WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND ALONG THE OHIO AND IN
THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL DURING THE DAY AND BREAK UP IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON, FAVORING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
10-20 MPH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA, WHILE THEY
WILL BE MORE 10 MPH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS IN THIS COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SOME MID 60S OVER
KENTUCKY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT NIGHT, OFFERING A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL OFFER SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST, LEADING TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALOFT, H5 RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH,
ACTING TO COMPRESS THE EASTERN RIDGE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE PROMOTES
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE,
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ROBUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAN WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON
SEVERAL FACTORS, SUCH AS STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL WESTERLIES,
TIMING OF THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, AND THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
LEADING UP TO ANY CONVECTION THAT IS FORCED. WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE
MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT CONSISTENT WITH SPC DAY 5 RISK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST HOLDS ITS POSITION
AS ADDITIONAL WAVES EJECT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE WAVES,
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE NOW-STALLED SURFACE FRONT, WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED ON CURRENT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, THE FOCUS OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LARGE SPACE WITHOUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOUND JUST SW OF
ILN TO CMH/LCK. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD ILN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, BUT
STAY OUT OF CMH/LCK SPHERE OF CONCERNS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. HOWEVER,
SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN THE RETURN-FREE AREA AND SOME LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING LATER IN THE EVENING. AS FOR
DAY, CONVECTION AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINAL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK UP TOWARDS 22Z ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD HIT DAY TOWARDS 05Z, AND
THE REMAINING TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-07Z. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND
IFR OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLDER AIR UNDERCUTS A SURFACE
LAYER THAT IS FULLY SATURATED.
THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW
MORNING, THEN LIFT AS THEY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND BREAK UP WITH
THE SETTING SUN. THIS WILL OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AT
DAY AS THE APEX OF THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR LIES FROM NW TO SE AND
CUTS THROUGH IT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND THEN 10-14KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS
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