973
FXUS61 KILN 260541
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT WITH IT. THERE WILL
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT STILL MAINLY OVERCAST. FAIRLY
STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE INDIANA-OHIO BORDER TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL DURING THE DAY AND BREAK UP IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON, FAVORING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
10-20 MPH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA, WHILE THEY
WILL BE MORE 10 MPH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS IN THIS COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SOME MID 60S OVER
KENTUCKY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT NIGHT, OFFERING A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL OFFER SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST, LEADING TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALOFT, H5 RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH,
ACTING TO COMPRESS THE EASTERN RIDGE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE PROMOTES
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE,
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ROBUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAN WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON
SEVERAL FACTORS, SUCH AS STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL WESTERLIES,
TIMING OF THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, AND THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
LEADING UP TO ANY CONVECTION THAT IS FORCED. WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE
MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT CONSISTENT WITH SPC DAY 5 RISK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST HOLDS ITS POSITION
AS ADDITIONAL WAVES EJECT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE WAVES,
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE NOW-STALLED SURFACE FRONT, WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BASED ON CURRENT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, THE FOCUS OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN AT IFR AREA WIDE. THE
CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND
VEER TO EAST OF NORTH WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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