629
FXUS61 KILN 121728
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON OCCASION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS,
BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN, ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A DIURNAL COMPONENT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
ALLOW FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, SO POPS
WILL BE KEPT LIMITED. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. COMPARED TO MONDAY,
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA -- IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR BROAD, DEEP-LAYER FORCING OVER THE ILN CWA.
THIS MEANS THAT BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER ON TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY AS
WELL. WITH THAT SAID, IT IS INTERESTING THAT CAM PROJECTIONS FOR
TUESDAY ARE VERY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE -- KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY UNTIL AFTER 17Z. THUS, POPS HAVE BEEN HEAVILY FOCUSED
ON PEAK DIURNAL TIMING FOR TUESDAY.
THE OVERALL SITUATION FOR TUESDAY IN TERMS OF HAZARDS LOOKS SIMILAR
TO MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF A GREATER CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
SIMILAR, BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE A LITTLE SLOWER. OVERALL, THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING SHOULD STILL
REMAIN ISOLATED. THE SEVERE THREAT, ONCE AGAIN, LOOKS MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE CLOSED LOW IS DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO START THE LONG
TERM. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONGOING IN THE
EVENING HOURS, BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION TAKES PLACE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-
2+ INCHES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CAUSING IT TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A DIURNALLY DRIVEN INCREASE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY REGION DUE TO THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THURSDAY (MID 80S) WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE EVENING, DUE TO THE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. THESE HEIGHT
FALLS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THERMODYNAMICALLY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP DUE TO THE EML SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, HOWEVER,
A CAPPING INVERSION LIKELY LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM, STRONG SHEAR AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE
HAIL.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS IT
MAY STALL WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THESE TYPES OF
SITUATIONS, THE INSTABILITY POOL IS TYPICALLY FAVORED SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD-POOLS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD. ULTIMATELY, IT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FEATURE MOSTLY ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW AS TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. LOWER-END POPS/T-STORM CHANCES
REMAINS BUT ARE FOCUSED TO SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK SYSTEM PROPAGATES
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. AT THIS
TIME, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE
WEEKEND IN COMPARISON TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE PCPN IS MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS SO IT IS STILL FAIRLY
LIGHT AND THE CIGS ARE STILL VFR. AS WE SATURATE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, DO EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT AND CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY. SUPPOSE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE
OUT AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, WITH SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE SHOWERS,
EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL DISSIPATING TREND HEADING INTO TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN DEVELOP HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT BACK INTO
VFR.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING, AND THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...JGL
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