930
FXUS61 KILN 130503
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
103 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON OCCASION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE ILN/S FA. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT UP INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AS IF SHIFTS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AXIS OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY WILL PIVOT UP AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM
LATE MORNING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CAPE REMAINING QUITE
SKINNY AND VERY LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. PCPN SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AGAIN HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A CLOSED LOW OVER CWA BEGINS THE PERIOD, TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO
LOWER MI DURING THE DAY AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH
EXTENDING SE FROM THIS LOW WILL ALSO MOVE E AND AWAY FROM CWA
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PEAK THURS EVENING WITH FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT MORNING.
OVERNIGHT FRI WILL SEE S/W ENERGY SKIM THE NORTHERN CWA AS IT
ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR/N OF LK SUPERIOR. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY AS ZONAL WLY FLOW REPLACES IT ON SAT, THEN RISE A LITTLE
MORE SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS SAT NIGHT, MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIDGE. GFS IS QUICKER AND MORE AMPLIFIED,
WHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN LOOK TO BE SLOWER, LESS AMPLIFIED, AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED. TEMPS IN THE NBM FORECAST LOOK TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS FROM SUN ONWARD, WITH WIDE VARIABILITY
BETWEEN 4 SIGMA LEVELS THROUGH EACH OF THE PERIODS.
UNTIL SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN LINE WRT MODEL AND
OPERATIONAL FORECASTS, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THAT TIME, THURS AND FRI WILL BE THE PEAK IN THE
FORECAST WITH LOW-MID 80S, COOLING DOWN THROUGH SUN INTO THE MID
70S. LOWS IN THE LOW 60S WED/FRI OVERNIGHT WILL SANDWICH A BALMY
UPPER 60S THURS NIGHT. SAT NIGHT ONWARD CURRENTLY HAS LOW-MID 50S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURS NIGHT SHOULD BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS IN THE REGION.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CEILINGS AROUND THE AREA RIGHT NOW ARE A MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND EVEN
SOME IFR. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARD
LOWER CEILINGS, SO THE TAF SITES ALL HAVE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. -SHRA WITH PROB30 -TSRA HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL TAF SITES TO INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING AS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED. BY EVENING, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN AT
TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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