666
FXUS61 KILN 131932
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AFTER THE LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
IF BACK-BUILDING OCCURS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE DURING THE
DAY BEFORE EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE UNDER THE
WAVE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN TODAY; THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE RELAXED, SO LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.
THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
PIVOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE BUT ALSO CAPPED. WITH BETTER FORCING LIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AWAY FROM THE AREA, IT SEEMS LIKE A RATHER LOW POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME GREATER
POSSIBILITY HEADING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THAT ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRIDAY. BUT OTHERWISE, FRIDAY COULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ALIGNING ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A
BIT OF A WINDOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO REDEVELOP IN EASTERN
COUNTIES, BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LOOKS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN
READINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THE 18Z
ISSUANCE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RATES OF RAINFALL, SO HAVE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS INCLUDED ACCORDINGLY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS, THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY QUIET.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT UNDER THE BROAD UPPER LOW.
IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS BY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN
AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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