557
FXUS61 KILN 140528
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AFTER THE LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED, BUT A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE, MAINLY UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY LIFT AND DEVELOP A LOW
STRATUS DECK AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE DURING THE
DAY BEFORE EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE UNDER THE
WAVE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN TODAY; THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE RELAXED, SO LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.
THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
PIVOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE BUT ALSO CAPPED. WITH BETTER FORCING LIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AWAY FROM THE AREA, IT SEEMS LIKE A RATHER LOW POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME GREATER
POSSIBILITY HEADING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THAT ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRIDAY. BUT OTHERWISE, FRIDAY COULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ALIGNING ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A
BIT OF A WINDOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO REDEVELOP IN EASTERN
COUNTIES, BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LOOKS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN
READINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF IFR
CEILINGS, AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT, SOME IFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED, AND
COULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE,
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR AT TIMES AS WELL. KLUK WILL
LIKELY BE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DURING THE DAY, CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS,
AND A FEW STORMS, WILL DEVELOP -- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA WITH PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THE
COLUMBUS TAF SITES, BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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