302
FXUS61 KILN 141035
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT THERE ARE PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS, AND ALSO PATCHES OF FOG. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW PATCHY OR TRANSIENT 1/4SM OBSERVATIONS, BUT THIS HAS
NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD AS OF NOW.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS IS IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP INTO A WAVE, AND IT WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PLENTIFUL, AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP -- WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH LIGHT FLOW AND MOIST CONDITIONS, SOME HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS, BUT THIS CONCERN SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED -- AS STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL BE AS
GREAT AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY MARGINAL CAPE, WITH POOR LAPSE
RATES, WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT VERY LIMITED.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE WANES, AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SSW
FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF TO THE WEST. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
AS A RESULT, A STRONG CAP IS VERY LIKELY TO KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON -- THE FORECAST WILL JUST BEGIN TO BRING SOME
LOW-END POPS IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM AFD SECTION BELOW.
IN A CHANGING AIR MASS, HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO
THE LOWER 80S -- MAYBE MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES TWO SEVERE THREATS WITHIN THE FIRST
TWO DAYS, FOLLOWED BY LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST, BUT
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON HOW THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN EVOLVES. THE
BELOW DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON THE TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE POTENTIAL (ROUND 1): A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO REGION LATE THURSDAY EVENING, PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, BUT IT IS CAPPED BY AN INVERSION NEAR 700 MB. THIS WILL MAKE
IT CHALLENGING FOR SURFACE AIR TO RISE INTO THE VERY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A MORE
LIKELY SOLUTION WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
EARLIER IN THE EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA, ADVANCING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LATE EVENING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. IF A WELL-ORGANIZED COLD-POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED, THIS MAY
HELP TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO. THEREFORE, THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA (I-70 AND NORTH) CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING IN THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE, TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE LARGER DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO THE AREAS WHERE A MORE ESTABLISHED COLD-
POOL IS MAINTAINED.
SPC'S DAY 2 SWO OUTLINES THE ENTIRE AREA IN EITHER A LEVEL 1
(MARGINAL) OR LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) RISK OUT OF 5. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST WITHIN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS PRESENT, BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY ULTIMATELY END UP
BEING UNDERWHELMING. AS A RESULT, FUTURE OUTLOOKS LIKELY WON'T CHANGE
MUCH.
THE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DIMINISH IN SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SEVERE POTENTIAL (ROUND 2): AFTER THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, HEIGHT FALLS FAIL TO CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING, PROVIDING
SOME DOUBT INTO HOW MANY CLASSIC "COLD FRONT" EFFECTS ARE OBSERVED.
INSTEAD, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ASSIST IN MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
UPPER 60 TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH YET ANOTHER EML PROVIDING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, ANOTHER POOL OF VERY HIGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA, BUT ALSO WITHIN THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LESS OF A CAP (INVERSION).
HOW EXACTLY THE CONVECTIVE PATTERNS EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING REMAIN IN QUESTION. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL WHEN COMPARED TO ROUND 1. IF A MORE ORGANIZED
FEATURE CAN FORM, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ALL THREATS,
INCLUDING A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT
AND SEVERAL QLCS TORNADOES. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS EVENT IS THAT
MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR AFTER DARK. FOR LOCATION,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST IN THE TRI-STATE AREA, INCLUDING SOUTHEAST
INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OHIO. BUT GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVE LOCATION, SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SPC'S DAY 3 SWO CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) OUT OF 5, HOWEVER, THIS
PARTICULAR EVENT COULD SEE SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHES OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE IMPACTING THE
AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR ALSO MIXING IN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH 14Z, AFTER WHICH TIME VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PREVAILING VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS, WILL DEVELOP TODAY -- ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA WITH
PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES, BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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