851
FXUS61 KILN 142332
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGING WILL THEN BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE
IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SLOWEST TO DISSIPATE IN THE EAST AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT
INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE, WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. BASED ON THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY,
SUPPOSE A FEW COULD INCLUDE HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND
60.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL LEAVE
THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER A STRONG CAP. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION
AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM MID-MAY TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP
AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT. BASED ON INCREASING H5 FLOW, CAN'T RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO... PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A BIT OF A LULL TO START THE
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL THEN BE REFLECTED IN THE RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING IN DURING
THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THERE
MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD.
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY IN CENTRAL OHIO.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND
TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER EVEN INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT ROBUST SYSTEM
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY.
BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EXIT FROM THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, WITH A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KCVG/KLUK AS A WEAK LINE OF
STORMS WILL MOVE IN -- CLOSER TO 06Z OR SO. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE
STORMS DON'T MAKE IT TO THE TERMINALS, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT KLUK. HAVE KEPT A MVFR/IFR MENTION FOR NOW, BUT THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIFR IF THE CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXPECTING FAIRLY LOW IMPACTS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CU AROUND. WILL SEE A SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLARK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page