802
FXUS61 KILN 150605
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGING WILL THEN
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE THIS EVENING, BUT CAMS CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS TO SCOOT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN OH LATER
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS, SHOULD THEY
MOVE INTO OUR AREA, WILL BE ELEVATED. THUS, SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE NULLIFIED, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL MAY STILL BE PRODUCED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE. SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN GIVEN THE SATURATED LOW
LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL LEAVE
THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER A STRONG CAP. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION
AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM MID-MAY TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP
AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT. BASED ON INCREASING H5 FLOW, CAN'T RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO... PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A BIT OF A LULL TO START THE
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL THEN BE REFLECTED IN THE RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING IN DURING
THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THERE
MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD.
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY IN CENTRAL OHIO.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND
TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER EVEN INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT ROBUST SYSTEM
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY.
BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTS THRU THE AREA.
EXPECT A GENERAL BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT KLUK
VALLEY LOCATION.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORED MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. BEST THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN ALL TAF SITES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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