168
FXUS61 KILN 150843
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE MAINLY THRU THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSED
BY BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL LEAVE THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER A CAP. THIS CAP
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE NOSE OF
AN ASSOCIATED 8H 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD THE FAVORED FORCING FROM THE LLJ. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. A
TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS IS ON A GOOD SIGNAL IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT EXISTS FOR THE SUPPORT
OF AN UPSCALE GROWING AND ORGANIZING MCS. SPREAD EXISTS IN MODEL
TIMING. WHILE MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS BRING THIS MCS IN FRIDAY NIGHT -
SOME OF THE FASTER CAM SOLUTIONS BRINGING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON TRENDS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEG TILTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ROTATING NE THROUGH THE CWA WILL
PROVIDE A STRONG SOURCE OF UPPER LIFT AS STRONG S/W TROUGH AHEAD OF
IT MOVES EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ON A 40KT SW FLOW AT H8 WILL
POOL AHEAD OF S/W ENERGY, INTERACT WITH STEEP ML LAPSE RATES AND LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR
A RAIN-FREE SATURDAY. ZONAL WNW FLOW TAKES ITS PLACE FOR SAT/SUN AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST EARLY MON. S/W ENERGY WILL TOP THE
RIDGE EARLY TUES AND PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE W. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ON WED, ENTERING THE
CWA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 60S, AND HIGHS FOR BOTH SAT
AND SUN IN THE POST-FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S. SAT
NIGHT MINS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT SUN AND PROMOTE LOWS A BIT COOLER IN A
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. MON
WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH A NE SURFACE WIND BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE HIGH FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH, LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH. TUES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST, NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER ON WED WILL
INHIBIT ANY WARMING AND HAVE A SIMILAR HIGH AS TUE, LOW 70S NORTH,
UPPER 70S SOUTH. AS THE RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HANGS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTS THRU THE AREA.
EXPECT A GENERAL BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT KLUK
VALLEY LOCATION.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORED MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. BEST THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN ALL TAF SITES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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