881
FXUS61 KILN 151756
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
156 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TODAY. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST SHOULD GENERALLY AFFORD ONLY A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD, EVEN WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTRODUCE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE THE H5 RIDGE ISN'T
QUITE AS ROBUST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE NOSE OF
AN ASSOCIATED 8H 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD THE FAVORED FORCING FROM THE LLJ. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. A
TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS IS ON A GOOD SIGNAL IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT EXISTS FOR THE SUPPORT
OF AN UPSCALE GROWING AND ORGANIZING MCS. SPREAD EXISTS IN MODEL
TIMING. WHILE MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS BRING THIS MCS IN FRIDAY NIGHT -
SOME OF THE FASTER CAM SOLUTIONS BRINGING THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON TRENDS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEG TILTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ROTATING NE THROUGH THE CWA WILL
PROVIDE A STRONG SOURCE OF UPPER LIFT AS STRONG S/W TROUGH AHEAD OF
IT MOVES EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ON A 40KT SW FLOW AT H8 WILL
POOL AHEAD OF S/W ENERGY, INTERACT WITH STEEP ML LAPSE RATES AND LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR
A RAIN-FREE SATURDAY. ZONAL WNW FLOW TAKES ITS PLACE FOR SAT/SUN AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST EARLY MON. S/W ENERGY WILL TOP THE
RIDGE EARLY TUES AND PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE W. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ON WED, ENTERING THE
CWA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 60S, AND HIGHS FOR BOTH SAT
AND SUN IN THE POST-FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S. SAT
NIGHT MINS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT SUN AND PROMOTE LOWS A BIT COOLER IN A
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. MON
WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH A NE SURFACE WIND BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE HIGH FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH, LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH. TUES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST, NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER ON WED WILL
INHIBIT ANY WARMING AND HAVE A SIMILAR HIGH AS TUE, LOW 70S NORTH,
UPPER 70S SOUTH. AS THE RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HANGS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WESTERN TROUGH WILL SEND AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE INTO THE RIDGE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A FAST-
MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF STORMS HEADING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LIKELY THE HIGHEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM DAY TO CMH/LCK... THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SIGNAL OF MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE NEAR THE
CINCINNATI AIRPORTS, BUT HAVE ONLY ADDED A SCATTERED LAYER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE DURING CVG'S EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
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