161
FXUS61 KILN 151929
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
329 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. DESPITE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS, FORCING WILL FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE ROBUST IN A FEW OF
THE LATEST CAMS. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE (HIGHEST
IN THE NORTH AND WEST) WHILE CLOSELY MONITORING ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS
THAT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE PARAMETER SPACE. IF STORMS DEVELOP,
ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING, A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME, A
WARM FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING, STARTING
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE DURING THE EVENING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL PEAK AROUND 3000J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHILE BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 KNOTS IN THE
EVENING. SOME CAMS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH POTENTIAL DISCREET SUPERCELLS. BEHIND THIS, IT'S LIKELY A QLCS
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A LINE- EMBEDDED
TORNADOES LATE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LINE COULD BE
SLOWED ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH WEST TO EAST TRAINING CONVECTION
BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST LIKELY, THIS
WILL COME THROUGH DRY, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP FORCING TO
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKY AGAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE
USUAL UNCERTAINTIES AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE GETTING ABSORBED INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WESTERN TROUGH WILL SEND AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE INTO THE RIDGE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A FAST-
MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF STORMS HEADING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LIKELY THE HIGHEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM DAY TO CMH/LCK... THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SIGNAL OF MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE NEAR THE
CINCINNATI AIRPORTS, BUT HAVE ONLY ADDED A SCATTERED LAYER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE DURING CVG'S EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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