598
FXUS61 KILN 160632
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
232 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. DESPITE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS, FORCING WILL FOCUSED
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE ROBUST IN A FEW OF
THE LATEST CAMS. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE (HIGHEST
IN THE NORTH AND WEST) WHILE CLOSELY MONITORING ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS
THAT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE PARAMETER SPACE. IF STORMS DEVELOP,
ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING, A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME, A
WARM FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING, STARTING
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE DURING THE EVENING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL PEAK AROUND 3000J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHILE BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 KNOTS IN THE
EVENING. SOME CAMS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH POTENTIAL DISCREET SUPERCELLS. BEHIND THIS, IT'S LIKELY A QLCS
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A LINE- EMBEDDED
TORNADOES LATE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LINE COULD BE
SLOWED ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH WEST TO EAST TRAINING CONVECTION
BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST LIKELY, THIS
WILL COME THROUGH DRY, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP FORCING TO
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKY AGAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE
USUAL UNCERTAINTIES AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE GETTING ABSORBED INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INHIBITED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO ILN/S AREA DUE TO A CAP. SOME OF THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS CAP DIMINISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE AND
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
IN THE WARM SECTOR STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
WITH SBCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY
GOOD SIGNAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST - WHICH ORGANIZES AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COMPLEX OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF/S LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THIS EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THE
GREATEST IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AS EARLY AS 22Z ACROSS KCVG AND KLUK
THRU ABOUT 03Z AT KCMH/KLCK. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THESE STORMS.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL STORMS
DEVELOP WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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