421
FXUS61 KILN 161520
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
IN ADDITION, THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS HAVE LED
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS HAVE STARTED
BACKING OFF STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT GRID
UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. IN THE WARM SECTOR STRONG
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KTS) WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY GOOD SIGNAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
TO OUR WEST - WHICH ORGANIZES INTO BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THE GREATEST
IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AS EARLY AS 5 PM ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THRU THE EVENING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS ACROSS THE CINCINNATI TRI-STATE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND A
PLAN IN PLACE SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.
IN THE HUMID AIRMASS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH.
STORMS DIMINISHING QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A LOW POP SHOWER OR STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THRU GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO A
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH. IN LESS HUMID AND
COOLER CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS STILL REMAINS TO THE W OVER WI ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS IN OUR
AREA WILL LEVEL OUT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE DECREASING IN
RESPONSE TO ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE TUES AFTERNOON, LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MASS FIELDS
BEYOND THIS TIME.
THE NEXT THREAT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG LOBE OF S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THEN TRACKS SE IN THE MEAN DOWNSTREAM UPPER FLOW.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT SETS UP W-E
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AT THIS TIME, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND S/W
ENERGY CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS CWA. A SURFACE LOW WILL
FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE CWA. PLACEMENT AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THAT THE LOW
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CWA, BRINGING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SFC LOW MOVES EAST, BUT AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW
HAS YET TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
EXISTS THROUGH WED.
A SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE IS DOMINANT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S SUN DROP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S MON, SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY 1-3 DEG TUES. NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WED, AND NEAR 60 THURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TAKE
A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY WITH LOW-MID 50S SAT/SUN NIGHTS, UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S MON NIGHT, LOW-MID 50S TUES NIGHT, NEAR 50 WED NIGHT AND
IN THE UPPER 40S THURS NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KCVG AND KLUK AS THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THIS MORNING
POTENTIAL OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.
IN THE WARM SECTOR STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
WITH SBCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY
GOOD SIGNAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST - WHICH ORGANIZES AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COMPLEX OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF/S LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THIS EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THE
GREATEST IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AS EARLY AS 22Z ACROSS KCVG AND KLUK
THRU ABOUT 03Z AT KCMH/KLCK. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THESE STORMS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL STORMS DEVELOP WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS. STORMS END LATER THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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