345
FXUS61 KILN 170523
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STATE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE HAVE SEEN AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH THE STORMS AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
FURTHER STABILIZE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER-MIDDLE 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE
TRI-STATE ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF AS A LOW TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER
LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE
MERGED LOW WILL THEN PIVOT EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF WET WEATHER, WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH
READINGS 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AFFECTING
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. IN DEVELOPING CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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