865
FXUS61 KILN 170749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT DRIER, COOLER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWER AND STORMS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN. TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY
TO PARTIAL CLEARING WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL BETWEEN
70 AND 75.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON MON, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE REGION WILL SEE S/W ENERGY TOP
THE RIDGE AND THEN SLIDE SE IN THE MEAN NW FLOW. THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT SW CWA EARLY IN THE DAY. NAM IS SHOWING A W-E
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CWA AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK EAST DURING THE DAY, AFFECTING NRN CWA. NAM IS THE OUTLIER
ATTM AND THE EARLY SW STORM THREAT HAS BEEN CARRIED BY A FEW MODELS
THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
OVERNIGHT, THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION AND STORMS ENTER WRN
CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK, FIRING ALONG A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ENE OVERNIGHT TUE,
FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE IN THE EVENING TO NEAR PITTSBURGH BY DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. A L/W UPPER TROUGH PASSES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY WED, AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT COULD PROMOTE SOME
COLD POOL INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON WED, WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER-
FORECAST. AGAIN, THE OVER-DONE PRECIP FORECAST LINGERS OVERNIGHT,
WHERE ANY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SHOULD END BEFORE NIGHTFALL FOR A
RELATIVELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TREND IS SHOWN, BUT DECREASING
CHANCES THROUGH TIME IS NOT THE LIKELY END RESULT - ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD CEASE RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH NIGHTFALL. THIS TREND OF PUTTING
POPS IN WHERE A DRY FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THURS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD UPPER S/W CROSSING THE CWA, THE DRY
POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERPOWER ANY COLD AIR OVERTURNING ON
THURS. EVEN IF IT DIDN'T, HAVING POPS SHOULD ONLY BE RELEGATED TO THE
FEW HOURS OF MAX HEATING AND BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW - NE CWA.
THIS DAYTIME PEAK WITH POPS PERSIST ON FRI AND SAT, SPURRED WHAT
LOOKS TO BE ENTIRELY CAA PROCESSES. AT BEST, A FEW SPRINKLES OR A
LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWER SHOULD BE THE WORST OF THE WEATHER STARTING ON
THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S MON WILL DROP TO THE 60S ON TUE AND
LINGER THERE FOR WED. ON THURS AFTER NW FLOW SETS UP, HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 60, THEN MODERATE TO THE MID 60S FRI AND UPPER 60S
SAT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S WILL BE FOUND THROUGH TUES NIGHT,
THEN DROP TO THE UPPER 40S WED NIGHT AND MID 40S THURS NIGHT. BY FRI
NIGHT, TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME AND DROP TO NEAR 50 WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AFFECTING
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. IN DEVELOPING CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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