560
FXUS61 KILN 181030
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 70 AND 75.
WEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER THE AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP OFF TO READINGS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GRAZE OUR SOUTHWEST WITH A SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER MONDAY.
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND WITH SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR A DRY FORECAST
HAVE TRIMMED BACK NBM POPS IN COVERAGE AND ALSO DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 70 TO 75.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF CWA WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES CWA OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE SETTLES OVER OH/PA DURING TUES AND THEN GETS EJECTED EWD AS
UPPER LOW OVER MN/IA PUSHES A LOBE OF S/W ENERGY THROUGH CWA LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOSED LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TUES TOWARDS
IA/IL AND OPENS UP WITH AN EWD TRANSLATION OF ENERGY, GENERALLY
AGREED TO BE OVER LOWER MI THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS IT TO BE FURTHER S IN
NRN OH. THE MORE NLY SOLUTIONS OF THE W-E TROUGH ARE INDICATING A
STRONG S/W CROSSING INTO SW CWA LATER OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WED. THIS
ENERGY PULLS APART THE PARENT LOW AND EVOLVES TO AN OPEN TROUGH
OVER/EAST OF CWA BY WED EVE AND RAPIDLY MOVES E TO THE MID ATLANTIC
BY DAYBREAK THU, LEAVING OH VLY IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURS.
UPPER MASS FIELDS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE ANOTHER S/W CROSSING THE
AREA IN THIS MEAN FLOW, BUT WIDELY VARY BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. NW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AND
TIGHTENS AS A CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF OH VLY TRACKS SE.
NW-SE SURFACE RIDGE CUTS THROUGH NE OH OVERNIGHT AND ON MON,
CROSSING INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN IA EXTENDS A WARM FRONT
TO THE E AND THEN SE, CUTTING THROUGH CWA DURING THE DAY TUES AND
LIFT NWD. THIS W-E FRONT LAYS OUT OVER NRN OH WITH ENERGY
TRANSLATING E OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. A CUTOFF H8 LOW DEVELOPS
UNDER THE H5 OPEN TROUGH AND SETTLES OVER FAR NE OH THEN WRAPS
AROUND A COLD FRONT IN THE LATE DAY AND EVENING. H8 NNW FLOW IN THE
LOW'S WAKE THU TURNS MORE NW, LASTING THROUGH SAT UNTIL A RIDGE
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND ON SUN.
SHOWERS WILL REACH THE IN/OH BORDER AS THEY ENTER FROM THE WEST BY
DAYBREAK TUES. ACTIVITY WILL NOTABLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
DEEPER CONVECTION TAKES OVER, AFFECTING ENTIRE CWA AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING, DECREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK WED. PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT AGAIN ON WED AS H8 CAA PROMOTES INSTBY
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SHOULD
BE DRY, BUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE
LATE DAY THURS/FRI.
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH WED WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S-
MID 60S THU/FRI AND THEN REBOUND TO NEAR 70 BY SUN. LOWS IN THE 50S
SUN/MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO MODERATE SAT NIGHT WHERE THEY ROUND OUT CLOSE TO 50.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH VFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WILL DECREASE THRU THE MORNING.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPILL IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET LEAVING
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLUK AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION
OVERNIGHT.
WEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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