336
FXUS61 KILN 190612
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
LINGERING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF MONDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME
SPRINKLES OUT A MID DECK ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING LATE. THIS COULD START TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS
INTO EASTERN INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN THAT FALLS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS AND
WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THESE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN
OHIO, HOWEVER THE IF THE LOW TRACK IS FURTHER NORTH, THE CONCERN
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS WELL. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY
THE FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST AREA. ONE OTHER ASPECT THAT COULD
IMPACT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WORKS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN
ALOFT. THERE IS SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AS
WELL. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION IN A BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THIS WILL MEAN ALMOST DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND ISOLATED SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS,
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS.
HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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