139
FXUS61 KILN 191058
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME
SPRINKLES OUT A MID DECK ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
70S SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING LATE. IN THE RETURN FLOW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY,
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS - SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS WILL LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AND ADVANCING WARM FRONT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 8H SOUTHERLY JET OF
45-50KT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND THE DEGREE OF INSTBY THAT CAN
DEVELOP NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH ONGOING SHOWERS THRU THE MORNING AND
CLOUD COVER. THE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH INSTABILITY LOOKING TO BE ELEVATED FURTHER
NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
NO LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED UNTIL SUN. H5 RIDGE OVER OH/PA
GETS PUSHED E AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS EWD
INTO NRN IL/IN/OH BY 12Z WED. ENERGY THEN TRANSLATES ESE THROUGH
CWA, UNDERCUTTING AN UPPER LOW N OF LAKE HURON, WHICH KEEPS IT
STALLED THROUGH THURS NIGHT. OTHER MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT PLACEMENT
OF H5 LOW, BUT RETROGRADE IT AND KEEP THE GENERAL PLACEMENT IN THE
NRN GTLKS THROUGH THURS NIGHT. CONTINUED EASTERN TRANSLATION OF H5
ENERGY HELPS DEVELOP A CUTOFF CIRCULATION OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT THURS. THIS LOW TRACKS NE ON FRI, PULLING ENERGY LOCATED
OVER THE GTLKS BEHIND IT. BEHIND THIS, NW FLOW RESULTS THROUGH SUN
AND MODELS THEN OFFER DIFFERING ASSESSMENTS OF THE UPPER PATTERN.
ONGOING RAIN OVERNIGHT TUES ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES
SITUATED ALONG A NW-SE AXIS CUTTING THROUGH NERN THIRD OF CWA,
CONTINUING THROUGH WED.
REGARDING WED, IT'S LIKELY TO BE DRY IN THE SW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
(40-50%) OVER CENTRAL OH, EVEN THOUGH NBM INITIALIZES THE DAY WITH
40 POPS IN THE SW AND CATEGORICAL 80% IN CENTRAL OH. FCST IS JUST
OVERDONE ON THIS DAY.
POPS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SCATTERED COLD POOL SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FOR THURS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRI, DRYING OUT BOTH NIGHTS.
A RAIN-FREE FCST IS THE BETTER BET BEYOND FRI THOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES BRING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS ASSERTION.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA. EARLY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO IMPROVE QUCIKLY. OTHERWISE, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.
HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS A WARM FRONT. CLOUDS WILL DROP THRU MVFR TO IFR
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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