232
FXUS61 KILN 021027
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
627 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS SURFACE CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD UNTIL A SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
RESULTING IN REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DEEP LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST REGION. DRY
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LIMITED
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
INCREASED DENSITY OF VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE, CONTINUE TO NUDGE
SKY COVER HIGHER IN THE GRIDS COMPARED TO WHAT THE NBM INITIALIZES
SINCE WE WILL OBSERVE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SMOKE ALOFT APPEARS TO HAVE A SUBTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPS, SO
TRENDED DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS OUR CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT MORE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT, BUT STILL HOLD A STRONG INFLUENCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE NEW LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
-- NEARLY 10 DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE MODIFICATION IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT, THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL
STILL SUGGESTS HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
ACROSS OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE, HOWEVER, IS THAT THIS
SMOKE IS NOW BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTH (AFTER PREVIOUSLY
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA). THIS COULD POTENTIALLY ALTER THE
CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE ALOFT AND HAVE IT BE MORE REDUCED THAN
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OBSTRUCTION
ALOFT FROM THE SMOKE, KEEPING A MILKY-WHITE APPEARANCE IN THE SKY
ONCE AGAIN.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER UNDERNEATH THE
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE ENTIRE FA, TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION TO
START THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE EMERGING OUT OF THE OZARKS WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY STAY WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH IN CANADA WILL END UP LAYING OUT EAST-
WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT
WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONCE THIS PASSES, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY START TO RETURN BACK
NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, WITH LOWS BEING NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, UNTIL THE LOW PASSES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK OVER THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KLUK TONIGHT DUE TO VALLEY FOG.
CONTINUED TO MENTION SCT250 FOR THE ELEVATED SMOKE. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES GIVEN THAT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EVENTUALLY,
THIS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, SO SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLARK
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLARK
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