195
FXUS61 KILN 021900
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES UNTIL A SLOW MOVING
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO MODERATE CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES, WITH LOW TO MID 50S THROUGH THE REGION. THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ADVANCING CLOUDS AT BAY FOR NOW, BUT
MENTION OF SOME SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO HIGH LEVEL SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WHILE CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THE QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTIES ARE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
HAZE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AS THE HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MODELING
SEEMS TO SUGGEST. CHECKING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HOW THEY COMPARE TO PAST
HRRR RUNS, IT SEEMS ANY HAZE THAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS ON TUESDAY WOULD YIELD VERY LIMITED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MENTIONING SOME HAZE FOR TUESDAY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED, ESPECIALLY SINCE ANY SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE TRAVELING A MUCH MORE CIRCUITOUS PATH.
HOWEVER, HAZY SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE, SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SKY
OBSCURATION LEVELS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH
INCREASING WITH THE ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER UNDERNEATH THE
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE ENTIRE FA, TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE 80S WITH INCREASING SW
FLOW/SURFACE WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WED INCREASED POPS IN THE NW LOOK TO BE A LITTLE EARLY AS 20% POPS
FOR EXTREME NW CWA SHOULD BE CONSIDERED HIGH-END VERSUS THE 40%
CURRENTLY RUNNING. THIS DISPARITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH 70+ POPS
RUNNING IN NW CWA AND DRY IN THE FAR SE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
ALL DRY ALONG/SE OF I-71 CORRIDOR AND SPARSE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT,
LEADING ME TO THINK A 40% WOULD BE CLOSER TO GROUND TRUTH. DAYTIME
THURS IS MORE OF THE SAME WITH CATEGORICAL IN THE FORECAST FOR
ENTIRE CWA WHERE HIGH CHANCE WOULD BE MORE PRUDENT. INDICATIONS OF
THE NBM DEPICTING A CLOSER SOLUTION TO THE OTHER MODELS IS FOUND
OVERNIGHT THURS INTO FRI WHERE A MORE CONTINUOUS PRECIP EVENT
OCCURS FOR CWA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE OVERNIGHT
THURS. THIS EXCEPTION GOES THE WAYSIDE ON FRI WITH A CONTINUED SHOT
OF STEADY RAIN, MODERATE AT TIMES OVER THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS EARLY ON SAT AND CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING.
THE PERSISTENCE IN LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SAT AND
REMAINDER OF CWA BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON IS OVERDONE. THIS
SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF RAIN ON MON.
TEMPS START WARM IN THE UPPER 80S WED, COOLING TO THE UPPER 70S BY
SAT AND SUN AND TRENDING WARMER TO AROUND 80 ON MON. PM LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S WED NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MID 60S THU AND LOW-MID 60S
FRI NIGHT. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ROUND OUT THE NIGHTTIME LOW
FORECAST GOING FORWARD FROM HERE.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED SW-NE OVER IL ON WED WILL APPROACH
THE CWA LATER OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRI, A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE W AND TAKES AIM ON THE CWA,
RESULTING IN PREVAILING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT EARLY SAT, KEEPING
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK WHICH MAY
STILL HAVE 08-12Z MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
LINGERING LIGHT WIND IN VALLEY FOG. KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE IN SCT250
FOR HIGH SMOKE. NOT SOLD ON ADDING HZ TO TAFS WITH SURFACE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONFINED TO MN AND SPOTTY
PORTIONS OF IA, DESPITE SOME FORECAST INCREASE IN NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
MODELING FROM THE HRRR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT IF ANY
RESTRICTIONS DO DEVELOP, WOULD BE HIGHER LEVEL MVFR AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALSO AFTER 16Z TUE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR
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