329
FXUS61 KILN 031033
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT
STILL HOLD INFLUENCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF
WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE REGION, WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE WEDNESDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN
EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. AS IT DOES, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN, INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
THE RESULT WILL BE A GREATER INFLUX OF WARM, HUMID AIR FROM THE GULF.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, WITH OUR ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 80 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL SEE MORE OF A
RESPONSE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THEY INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S, MAKING THE AIR FEEL A LITTLE MORE HUMID.
EVEN WITH THE MODIFICATION IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT TODAY, THE HRRR
SMOKE MODEL STILL SUGGESTS HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE DIFFERENCE,
HOWEVER, IS THAT THIS SMOKE IS NOW BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTH
(AFTER PREVIOUSLY ORIGINATING FROM CANADA). THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
ALTER THE CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE ALOFT AND HAVE IT BE LOWER THAN
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING (ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW MUCH BLUE SKY WAS PRESENT
ON MONDAY). NOT SOLD ON THIS SMOKE BEING ABLE TO REACH DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND RESULT IN VSBY REDUCTIONS, SO DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF
SMOKE OR HAZE IN THE GRIDS. KEEP IN MIND HOWEVER THAT SKIES MAY BE
MILKY-WHITE AT TIMES TODAY DUE TO THE SMOKE DRIFTING ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
NOTABLE INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASED
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECTING LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WANE ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION WILL GRADUALLY TRAVEL EASTWARD, RESULTING
IN MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND AN INTRODUCTION
OF POPS. MAJORITY OF MODELS STILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WE COULD OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING LATE DAY -- CLOSER TO 8PM OR SO.
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE PUSHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE AREA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS. ACTIVE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS FORCING
DECREASES AND AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTINUES INCREASE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRAVEL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS, WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING ANY AREAS THAT GET
REPEATED ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY.
ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW PASS, THE FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
AREA LATE.
A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BRINGING THE
NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PASS. THEN READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE TO
HIGHLIGHT IS THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. IN THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF, SHOW AN ADDITIONAL JUMP
IN SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SCT250 MENTION FOR POTENTIAL SMOKE ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLARK
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLARK
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