793
FXUS61 KILN 032218
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
618 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP A WARM, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE INDIANA AND OHIO BORDER WEAKENS
SURFACE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD. THEN, UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
MEANDERS INTO OHIO, ALONG WITH MORE PREVALENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
FORECAST HAS NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KEEP UP OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH A
MOSTLY TRANSPARENT LAYER OF SMOKE ABOVE US. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE A
MUCH WARMER MID-UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY CONTINUES AN EAST MOVEMENT, IT WILL PERMIT
AN EQUALLY SLOW PROGRESSION OF A SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA, THOUGH A FEW
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD AFFECT FAR NW CWA BY NIGHTFALL. THIS IS
GENERALLY NW OF A WAPAK-GREENVILLE LINE.
ASIDE FROM A FEW FAIR WX CU POSSIBLE NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR, CLOUD
COVER WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED SW
FLOW WILL SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGHS AS THEY REACH 85-90 DEGREES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKES A SLOW BUT
CONSISTENT PUSH INTO CWA OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY EXPECTED NW OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY TO THE NW OF
CWA. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL WEAKEN BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS UP SIMILAR TO WHAT'S EXPECTED
TONIGHT - UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM. A
SYSTEM WILL LAY OUT OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A TEMPORARY END TO THE PRECIPITATION AFTER SATURDAY.
CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
HWO. ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME WITH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORM. SOME MODELS HINT AT LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10KT. WIND WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15KT TOMORROW FROM THE SW AND BE UNIDIRECTIONAL
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS LAYER IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND WILL BE DRY. MEAGER 850 MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON
CU POPPING BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO RESULT IN ANY CIGS. SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE JUST TOO LARGE AND THERE IS NOT ANY WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SW FLOW THAT WOULD PROVIDE ANY FORCING TO CREATE MORE THAN A SCT
CU FIELD AOA 4-5KFT.
THE DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT,
CREATING SUSTAINED WIND ~15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT, PRIMARILY FOR KDAY
WITH A PROXIMITY SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT.
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE MODEST INCREASES IN AMBIENT WIND
~10-12KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SCT250 MENTION FOR POTENTIAL SMOKE ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS
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