504
FXUS61 KILN 040522
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP A WARM, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE INDIANA AND OHIO BORDER WEAKENS
SURFACE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD. THEN, UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
MEANDERS INTO OHIO, ALONG WITH MORE PREVALENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES CREATES A NICE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-WEST.
THIS KEEPS OUR WIND SPEEDS A TAD HIGHER OVERNIGHT, AROUND 10 MPH.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OH/IN BORDER
WHILE CENTRAL OH REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S, WITH TDS IN THE LOW 60S. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMERY-
FEELING MUGGY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--> FORECAST HAS NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO CHANGE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KEEP UP OVERNIGHT
AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH A MOSTLY TRANSPARENT LAYER OF SMOKE ABOVE US.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH WARMER MID- UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY CONTINUES AN EAST MOVEMENT, IT WILL PERMIT
AN EQUALLY SLOW PROGRESSION OF A SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA, THOUGH A FEW
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD AFFECT FAR NW CWA BY NIGHTFALL. THIS IS
GENERALLY NW OF A WAPAK-GREENVILLE LINE.
ASIDE FROM A FEW FAIR WX CU POSSIBLE NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR, CLOUD
COVER WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED SW
FLOW WILL SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGHS AS THEY REACH 85-90 DEGREES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKES A SLOW BUT
CONSISTENT PUSH INTO CWA OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY EXPECTED NW OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY TO THE NW OF
CWA. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL WEAKEN BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS UP SIMILAR TO WHAT'S EXPECTED
TONIGHT - UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM. A
SYSTEM WILL LAY OUT OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A TEMPORARY END TO THE PRECIPITATION AFTER SATURDAY.
CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
HWO. ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME WITH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORM. SOME MODELS HINT AT LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME. STILL MIGHT OBSERVE ELEVATED SMOKE TODAY BASED ON
THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST. TIMING WOULD SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT, WITH BETTER COVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...CA/FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLARK
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