951
FXUS61 KILN 041038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE TONIGHT. EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER,
DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE OHIO VALLEY AS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BASED
ON LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION
OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE A FEW HI-RES
MODELS THAT TRY TO INITIALIZE A FEW ISOLATED CELLS IN OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEGREES) AND MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW A CAPPING
INVERSION ~8,000 FT AGL. THUS, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA THROUGH SUNSET.
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FA, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE WEEK. SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE OPAQUE AT TIMES WITH THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AS A WARM AIR MASS REMAINS INTACT AND A
FAIR MIX OF CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE, WHICH WILL REDUCE OUTGOING
LONGWAVE RADIATION. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN DROP BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED IN OUR CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE NW OF I-71
CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WITH WIND SHEAR
VALUES BEING VERY WEAK, ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WE WILL
PRIMARILY BE LOOKING AT A DOWNBURST THREAT FROM CELLULAR STORMS.
HOWEVER, OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
ROBUST DCAPE VALUES AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LIMITING UPDRAFT
GROWTH AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOADING AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, FLOOD RISK WILL ALSO BE VERY LIMITED, BUT CERTAINLY
COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HITTING THE
SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES IN A SHORT TIME-SPAN, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THUS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THUNDER COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE GREATLY HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM.
A SHORT WAVE WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF REPEATED ACTIVITY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL INSTABILITY IS ON THE WANE, BUT THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THERE IS SUFFICIENT
JUXTAPOSITION TO ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORT WAVE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO NOT GET VERY
FAR SOUTH. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION.
A CLOSED LOW WILL BARREL OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WHICH COULD EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME. STILL MIGHT OBSERVE ELEVATED SMOKE TODAY BASED ON
THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST. TIMING WOULD SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS YET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLARK
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLARK
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