352
FXUS61 KILN 041923
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT, WITH EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FOR A PERIOD THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THRU THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
TODAY. SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI, IL,
AND MO NUDGES A LITTLE EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AN MARGINAL - SO DO NOT EXPECT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED TODAY WHICH LED TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 10 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AS A WARM AIR MASS REMAINS INTACT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY.
EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MARGINAL, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO
THE MID 80S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE DECREASES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
DIURNAL MINIMUM BUT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACES AND A FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THRU THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.
A BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. WITH MULTIPLE WAVES EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THIS MENTION IN THE HWO.
IN ADDITION, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. SOUTH OF WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION AS
WELL. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
NOW MORE MODEL VARIABILITY FOR SATURDAY FOR WHETHER THIS FRONT WORKS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS OR IF ANOTHER WAVE
WORKS UP INTO THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, FOLLOWED THE NBM WITH
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
NOW SIGNALS THAT SUNDAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
CATEGORIES.
ON MONDAY THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
ON THE HIGHER END, HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH AND THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES,
LINGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S
AND 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA PLACING THE
REGION IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS
AT TIMES.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WEAKENING
CONVECTION OR SHOWERS TO MOVE INT THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THRU ABOUT MID MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PLACEMENT AND TIMING HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF VCSH OR -SHRA TOWARD
SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND BY MID MORNING EAST WITH NO RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. A BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE HANDLED THIS THREAT WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN 30
HOUR KCVG TAF AFTER 21Z.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THRU THE EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME HAVE KEPT ALL SITES IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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