295
FXUS61 KILN 042343
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT, WITH EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FOR A PERIOD THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THRU THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
TODAY. SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI, IL,
AND MO NUDGES A LITTLE EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AN MARGINAL - SO DO NOT EXPECT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED TODAY WHICH LED TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 10 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AS A WARM AIR MASS REMAINS INTACT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY.
EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MARGINAL, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO
THE MID 80S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE DECREASES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
DIURNAL MINIMUM BUT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACES AND A FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THRU THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.
A BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. WITH MULTIPLE WAVES EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THEREFORE CONTINUED THIS MENTION IN THE HWO.
IN ADDITION, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. SOUTH OF WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION AS
WELL. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
NOW MORE MODEL VARIABILITY FOR SATURDAY FOR WHETHER THIS FRONT WORKS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS OR IF ANOTHER WAVE
WORKS UP INTO THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, FOLLOWED THE NBM WITH
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
NOW SIGNALS THAT SUNDAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
CATEGORIES.
ON MONDAY THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
ON THE HIGHER END, HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH AND THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES,
LINGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S
AND 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG IT. NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN TAF SITES (KDAY
AND PERHAPS KCVG/KLUK) WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SOME EARLY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY. COVERAGE VERY SLOWLY WORKS EAST AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL
SITES AT VARYING TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING/ PLACEMENT, FOLKS.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM IN THE WARM AIRMASS, BUT COVERAGE WON'T BE WIDESPREAD (HENCE
THE WORD SCATTERED). HAVE USED PROB30S TO COMMUNICATE THE -TSRA
THREATS FOR ALL SITES AS WE HEAD INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, THOUGH WE MAY
HAVE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page