593
FXUS61 KILN 050725
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN THE REGION INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THROUGH THAT TIME.
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FINALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT UNTIL
THEN, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME-
TO-TIME.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS IT IS SHUNTED TO THE
E OF THE REGION AS BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PIVOT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD BEFORE
ESSENTIALLY STALLING OUT SQUARELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES, INCLUDING ONE OR
MORE REMNANT/ILL-DEFINED SFC WAVES, WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOCALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS MORE ACTIVE STRETCH WILL BEGIN BY DAYBREAK AS A WEAKENING BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA DRIFTS TO THE E INTO THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM THE SW/W THROUGH THE MORNING, THE
ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT/PROFILE LOCALLY IS STILL QUITE DRY, AS
SAMPLED BY THE 05.00Z KILN RAOB. SO IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
INITIALLY-COHESIVE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND DAYBREAK ENTERING THE
WRN PARTS OF THE ILN FA WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. THIS SHOULD YIELD A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AS THE ACTIVITY WITHERS, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE A SOLID SHIELD
OF CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY INHIBIT, OR AT THE VERY LEAST DELAY,
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION EFFORTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS ONE CHARACTERIZED
BY VERY WEAK EFFECTIVE/LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW, BUT MODEST INSTBY (ML/SBCAPE
~1200-1500 J/KG). WITH THE VERY WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY MEAGER FORCING,
BUT SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY DISORGANIZED/CELLULAR, BUT
COULD POSE A BRIEF GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND (VIA DOWNBURST) OR HAIL
THREAT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS VERY MARGINAL, OWING TO THE WEAK
SHEAR AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION, BUT SUPPOSE THAT IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALTOGETHER GIVEN A SOMEWHAT MIXED BL AND DEEP/MODEST INSTBY. THE
PWATS WILL BE 150+% OF SEASONAL NORMS, SO CERTAINLY VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES (HEAVY RAIN) WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY,
TOO.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE STILL QUITE SEASONABLE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM WC OH TO SC OH/NE KY, RESPECTIVELY. IT WILL BE
HUMID, HOWEVER, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR A WEAK SFC WAVE/IMPULSE TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-08Z, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE /JUST/ ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY GOING IN THIS AREA WELL
PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST SOME TSRA ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED PAST MIDNIGHT.
A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY DIP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED ON FRIDAY THAN WILL BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE INITIAL WEAK SFC
WAVE MOVES TO THE E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BEING SAID,
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/IMPULSE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TOWARD SUNSET
AND BEYOND, INDICATING THAT STORMINESS ON FRIDAY MAY INCREASE A BIT
TOWARD THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME BEFORE WANING AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE AS THE
REMAINING INSTABILITY IS USED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS LOWER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR SATURDAY
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE LULL IN ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS POTENTIAL LULL, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE OUT
SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SHOWER &
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS DO NOT ENTIRELY DISAPPEAR FROM THE FORECAST
BECAUSE YET ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS STRONGER TROUGH PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FORCING AND
WIND-FLOW, BUT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT BEHIND THE LARGER TROUGH TUESDAY, A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
BEGINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD LIKELY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS,
DEPENDING ON THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN
THE LACK OF DEEP RIDGING AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. DESPITE
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS, THERE ISN'T A CLEAR PERIOD WHERE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER ARE CONCERNING. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENTUAL WEAKENING.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME RIVER VALLEY BR/FG WILL IMPACT KLUK WITH MVFR, OR EVEN BRIEF
IFR, VSBYS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF SOME THICKER/LOWER CLOUD COVER
AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS
CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND OVERSPREADS FROM THE W AROUND SUNRISE AND
BEYOND. THE ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA, WHICH WILL MOVE FROM W TO E THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z AND 17Z. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUT HOW LONG THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT, BUT DO THINK THAT WRN SITES OF KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF PCPN DURING A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD THIS
MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT AND DISORGANIZED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS
NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL REGARDING A FAVORED LOCATION OR TIME PERIOD FOR
ANY ONE SITE, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR EACH SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO CONVEY THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST SOME SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL AT ANY/EACH SITE. THERE MAY BE A BETTER ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEAR KCVG/KLUK/KILN AFTER ABOUT
03Z, SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR THESE SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR, ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A BRIEF MVFR
CIG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN A HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. OF COURSE,
BRIEF BUT ABRUPT CHANGES IN VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA
ACTIVITY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WSW AROUND
5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VRB TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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