072
FXUS61 KILN 052018
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
MCV MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF ILN/S AREA LATE THIS AFTN LEAVING TEMPORARY
STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE.
AIRMASS HAS RESPONDED ACROSS THE WEST WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST -
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO - CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY, EXPECT THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BE VERY DISORGANIZED/CELLULAR. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS THRU EARLY EVENING.
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADS TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL, SO WE SHOULD OBSERVE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER WEAK FORCING TO
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
A MILD AND HUMID NIGHT IS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
INITIAL WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
ONGOING ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY TO PUSH EAST WITH A GENERAL LULL
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THRU THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE
FRONT. SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN START TO WORK
NORTHWARD LATER ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK FURTHER NORTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH
THE AREA. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
KEEPING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DUE TO SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN SUCH A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. DUE TO THIS, WENT CLOSE TO THE
NBM FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS
DURING ANY ONE TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S AND 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK FRONT TO STALL OUT EAST-WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE RIPPLING THRU TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THESE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR EXACT LOCATIONS HAVE
HANDLED THIS THREAT WITH PROB30 FOR EACH SITE THROUGH THE EVENING TO
CONVEY THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST SOME SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.
THERE MAY BE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THAT AFFECTS THE AREA AFTER
02Z AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS PERIOD.
CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z - WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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