303
FXUS61 KILN 060703
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
303 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN ILL-DEFINED FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE OH VLY, WITH A VERY
DIFFUSE/WEAK SFC WAVE TRANSLATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA FROM TIME-TO-TIME, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN/ERN HALVES
OF THE ILN FA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS GOING TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ISO FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND PWATS THAT ARE ~150% OF SEASONAL NORMS.
RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS,
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY OVERWHELM POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND OTHER LOW-
LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE SPOTS. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER SPOTTY/ISO IN NATURE.
BY MID AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE AN GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOCALLY, ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW ISO SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS "LULL" WILL OCCUR AS
THE INITIAL SFC WAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BEFORE ANOTHER ONE,
ALONG WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA, APPROACHES FROM THE SW BY
EARLY EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS
TSRA COMPLEX WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR S/SW PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BY THIS TIME, THERE SHOULD BE AN
INSTBY GRADIENT LAID OUT APPROXIMATELY W-E NEAR THE OH RVR, WITH A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT POSITIONED IN N KY AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OH
OPPOSED TO POINTS FURTHER TO THE N. IT IS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT
THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING THAN WILL BE
THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME, SUPPORTING SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT SB INSTBY AND A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO EXTREME SE IN, N/NE KY AND FAR SOUTH-
CENTRAL OH MID/LATE EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY TO THE S OF THE LOCAL
AREA WHERE THE LL BULK SHEAR VECTOR WILL ALIGN MORE FAVORABLY FOR
TRANSLATION OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. CERTAINLY AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN N/NE KY AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL OH, BUT THE OVERALL FAVORABILITY FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, SUGGESTING A RELATIVELY SMALL
TEMPORAL/SPATIAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY LOCALLY MID/LATE
EVENING, PRIMARILY IN N KY.
SOME STRATIFORM RAIN MAY EXTEND TO THE N OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
INTO SE IN AND SE OH MID TO LATE EVENING, BUT THE STRONG/SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CONFINED TO THE SRN 1/4 OF THE ILN FA.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (WC OH) TO MID 80S (LOWER
SCIOTO VALLEY/NE KY) AMIDST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
THE LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DRIFTING TO THE E ACROSS THE
SRN 1/4 OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE YIELDING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOST OF THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY LOCALLY, WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, DO THINK
THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
DESPITE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FRONT TO THE S TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE A
BIT MILD (LOWER TO MID 60S), WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AMIDST A
CLEARING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
EARLY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY, SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FRONT THAT DROPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY CLIMBS
BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OUTSIDE
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW, AS THIS IS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME, THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE FROM WEST-CENTRAL OHIO
INTO CENTRAL OHIO, ALONG WITH NORTHERN OHIO. INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD, WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
AS THE WEAK SUNDAY SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BETTER MOISTURE FAVORS HIGHER
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY, BUT BETTER FORCING ON
TUESDAY MEANS THERE CAN'T BE A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ARE DRY DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID JUNE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SUBTLE WARMUP ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE, PARTICULARLY FOR NRN/ERN SITES,
THROUGH DAYBREAK. A FEW ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR KCMH/KLCK, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
BEYOND 18Z, ALTHOUGH SOME ISO ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A "LULL" IN COVERAGE
LOCALLY UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WHEN A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE SW TOWARD KCVG/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX (AS WELL AS
THE EXACT TIMING) OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT IT WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE TO
KCVG/KLUK FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE EVENING, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
SHRA IN AT THESE SITES FOR NOW.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL GO MORE SOLIDLY MVFR AREA-WIDE TOWARD
DAYBREAK, WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY AT KDAY.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BR AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY IFR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-13Z.
CIGS WILL LIFT/SCATTER A BIT TOWARD/BEYOND 15Z BEFORE GOING BACK VFR
BY 18Z AREA-WIDE. CIGS MAY TREND BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
SATURDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE
GOING OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 10KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC FLOW SHOULD
TREND MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD, SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5KTS
ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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