263
FXUS61 KILN 061356
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WESTERLY MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL NUDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS WE GET INTO
MID AFTERNOON. THIS GENERAL LULL IS IN RESPONSE TO THE INITIAL
SURFACE WAVE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT BETTER
STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO MIGRATE
INTO SOUTHEAST IN, NORTHERN KY, AND FAR SOUTHERN OH, LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
BEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF ILN/S AREA.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
THE LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DRIFTING TO THE E ACROSS THE
SRN 1/4 OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE YIELDING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOST OF THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY LOCALLY, WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, DO THINK
THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
DESPITE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FRONT TO THE S TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE A
BIT MILD (LOWER TO MID 60S), WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AMIDST A
CLEARING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
EARLY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY, SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FRONT THAT DROPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY CLIMBS
BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OUTSIDE
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW, AS THIS IS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME, THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE FROM WEST-CENTRAL OHIO
INTO CENTRAL OHIO, ALONG WITH NORTHERN OHIO. INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD, WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
AS THE WEAK SUNDAY SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BETTER MOISTURE FAVORS HIGHER
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY, BUT BETTER FORCING ON
TUESDAY MEANS THERE CAN'T BE A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ARE DRY DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID JUNE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SUBTLE WARMUP ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE
AREA, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE, PARTICULARLY FOR ERN
SITES, THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR KCMH/KLCK, SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEYOND 18-19Z, ALTHOUGH SOME ISO ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A "LULL" IN COVERAGE
LOCALLY UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA TRIES
TO WORK IN FROM THE SW TOWARD KCVG/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX (AS WELL AS
THE EXACT TIMING) OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT IT WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCVG/KLUK
AND GET VERY CLOSE TO KILN FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT EACH SITE LATE
EVENING.
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BR AND MVFR VSBYS
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY IFR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z. CIGS WILL LIFT/SCATTER A BIT TOWARD/BEYOND
15Z BEFORE GOING BACK VFR BY 18Z AREA-WIDE. CIGS WILL TREND BACK TO
MVFR FROM N TO S BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 10KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. SFC FLOW SHOULD TREND MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD,
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5KTS ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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