929
FXUS61 KILN 070527
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A LARGE BAND OF (NON-SEVERE) SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO PIVOT TO THE E
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS EVENING, WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES
PRODUCING ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITHIN
TRAINING ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THESE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MANY LOCALES NEAR/S OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA SLOWLY WANES THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL LEND
ITSELF TO A DRYING TREND PROGRESSIVELY FROM WNW TO ESE BY DAYBREAK.
ANOTHER MUGGY/MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS GENERALLY DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED BY SUNRISE AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH RESIDUAL PCPN FROM REMNANTS OF A WAVE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AFFECTING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER THIS INITIAL PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THRU
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY DRY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CLOSE TO THE
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY AND THEN DROP TO LOWS FROM
60 TO 65 BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE TAPING OFF.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE THEN INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE
IN FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S AND
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LARGE BAND OF SCT SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY E THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS PROGRESSIVELY
FROM 08Z-10Z FROM W TO E, YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS ENDED, BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST RA POCKETS.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO FOCUS NEAR SRN SITES OF
KCVG/KLUK/KILN THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE CIGS RETURN VFR AREA-WIDE
ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAYTIME. IN FACT, SOME
SCATTERING OF THE VFR CU SHOULD TAKE PLACE, PARTICULARLY FOR NRN
SITES, INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE A /VERY/ SIMILAR SHRA/TSRA SETUP UNFOLD AGAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE SW PAST ABOUT 22Z,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH NE EXTENT THROUGH 06Z. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY FOR ERN SITES OF KCMH/KLCK BEFORE
EXITING ALTOGETHER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS, POTENTIALLY ABRUPT, BUT THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW AT AROUND 5KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VRB ONCE AGAIN PAST 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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