546
FXUS61 KILN 071424
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER PARALLEL TO THE
ZONAL WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TAKING
SHOWERS/STORMS AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LIKELY DEVELOPING.
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO
YESTERDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AFTER 4
PM AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ABOUT 150% OF SEASONAL NORMS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE OBSERVED AND LOCAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM TRAINING ACTIVITY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SFC LOW ITSELF WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED (WHICH MAY EVOLVE NEAR A CORRIDOR FROM
EC IN INTO THE MIAMI VALLEY/WC OH), DO THINK THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE
ONSET/ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AND SW OH (AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED SOME HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT FROM W TO E
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEYOND, WITH ANOTHER DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS BEING SAID, DO THINK THERE MAY BE AT LEAST A FEW ISO SHRA THAT
DEVELOP/LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SPOTTY/DISORGANIZED AT BEST. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FLANKING BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE SW OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW,
FOCUSING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO MIDDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING
WORKING IN FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MORNING NOW CLEARED TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE LARGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. A
RIBBON OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, ESPECIALLY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT, THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER VALUES. GIVEN THE MODEST WIND
SHEAR (~40 KNOTS), CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES
FOR A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A SHORT PERIOD
OF DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE STEADY WARM-UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK SYSTEM BRING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE WEAK SYSTEM MAY CLOSE-OFF IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY, SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHEN RAINFALL CHANCES WILL PRECISELY ARRIVE BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR RETURN TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE THE WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT SHRA CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED, SO HAVE STARTED
EACH SITE WITH A DRY FCST, PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHRA DEVELOP NEAR KCVG/KLUK PAST 18Z, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THESE SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH A RETURN TO VFR AREA-WIDE EXPECTED BY 15Z OR SO. IN
FACT, SOME SCATTERING OF THE VFR CU SHOULD TAKE PLACE, PARTICULARLY
FOR NRN SITES, INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH JUST A BKN MID DECK BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE A /VERY/ SIMILAR SHRA/TSRA SETUP UNFOLD AGAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
FAIRLY COHESIVE/LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE SW
PAST ABOUT 22Z, CONTINUING IN A WIDESPREAD FASHION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. THE HEAVY POCKETS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING VSBY REDUCTION TO
MVFR/IFR. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA TO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY FOR ERN SITES OF KCMH/KLCK BEFORE EXITING
ALTOGETHER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS,
POTENTIALLY ABRUPT, BUT THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS
NEEDED. PREVAILING CIGS WILL GO MVFR/IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW AT AROUND 5KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VRB ONCE AGAIN PAST 00Z SUNDAY. FLOW
SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE OUT OF THE NW LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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