285
FXUS61 KILN 081825
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY,
PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY,
PROVIDING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT BY TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN. ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO TO TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTN. SATURATED AIRMASS WITH LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE LOW TODAY. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN. SOIL IS ALSO SATURATED - ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO RAIN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A GENERAL DECREASE AND DRYING TREND WILL EVOLVE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ON A QUIETER
NOTE AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE E AND THE OTHER APPROACHES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY AND BEYOND. COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES (THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS) AND LIGHT SFC FLOW. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN FROM THE W TOWARD SUNRISE
AND BEYOND. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHRA, WITH ISO EMBEDDED TSRA, TO THE
AREA AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. THIS ONE, HOWEVER, IS OF A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STRUCTURE/SETUP THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH ON-AND-OFF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AN ANAMOLOUSLY-DEEP AND
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO THE SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE OH VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
FORCING, ALLOWING FOR A NARROW NE-TO-SW BAND OF SHRA, WITH EMBEDDED
TSRA, TO MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION TO BE
REALIZED ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE NEAR/E OF I-71, SO THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA, AND PERHAPS A VERY ISO/LOW-END SEVERE
CHANCE, IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS. DO THINK THAT A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF NE KY
AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OH BY MID AFTERNOON, BUT THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR /SEVERE/ STORMS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY END FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE W INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL HEAVY INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME, WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (WARMEST CONDITIONS
FAVORED IN NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA BY MIDDAY).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DURING THE DAY TAKES A
NORTHWEST TURN TUES NIGHT, AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ON THURS NIGHT
AND FRI, A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST BY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME, THE LOW IS EAST OF A MEAN
RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS KEEPING IT FROM DEEPENING. ON SUNDAY, THE WEAK
LOW/OPEN WAVE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE EXITING EAST, WITH COOL AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING IT. THE
COOLEST PERIOD IN THE FORECAST IS FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT
WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. AFTER THIS TIME, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO EXIT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT, DOWNSTREAM OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS AND IN THE MEAN SW FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. GFS DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT IN SRN MI FOR
EARLY FRI AND BRINGS IN PRECIP BEGINNING LATE THURS, CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. EUROPEAN HINTS AT A SFC BOUNDARY BUT IS BEGINNING
PRECIP WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS EARLY SAT WHEREAS GFS IS EXITING THE
FRONT AND FOLLOWING IT WITH DRY AIR. THE EURO HAS SOME BUY-IN FROM
THE CANADIAN BUT THE CANADIAN IS OVERDONE WITH VOLUME AND
PERSISTENCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA SATURDAY.
PRECIP FIELDS AT THIS TIME AND GENERAL PATTERN DIVERGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HAVE A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THEY MAX OUT THU/FRI IN THE MID 80S WITH WEEKEND HIGHS TOPPING OUT
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. WITH THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER AND SLY
FLOW, OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 60S, PUNCTUATED
ON EITHER END BY SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 60S THU AND SAT NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OBSERVED IN PRECIPITATION.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE DAY,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 06Z.
DEEP AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INCREASES
TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND FORCING TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE AND
TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF/S.
AT THIS TIME HAVE LIMITED ALL MENTION OF PCPN TO SHOWERS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA
WIDE MONDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-13 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN, MAINLY FOR
KILN/KCMH/KLCK.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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