850
FXUS61 KILN 081939
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
339 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, PROVIDING A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL SOME DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY
TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO STACKED DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET DEVELOPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INCREASES TO 35 TO 40 KTS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND FORCING TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.
LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
STACKED DEEP LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WHICH INCREASES TO 35 TO 40 KTS
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND FORCING TO INCREASE. A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE AND MOVE EAST THRU THE AREA THRU THE AFTN.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ILN/S EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH CHANCES
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AS ANTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW AND A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
LOWS DROP OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM WEST ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S. .
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP WEST OF THE HIGH LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS REACH 80 ON WEDNESDAY AND THE MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK BOUNDARY WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OBSERVED IN PRECIPITATION.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE DAY,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 06Z.
DEEP AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INCREASES
TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND FORCING TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE AND
TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING. THE BETTER THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF/S.
AT THIS TIME HAVE LIMITED ALL MENTION OF PCPN TO SHOWERS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA
WIDE MONDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-13 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN, MAINLY FOR
KILN/KCMH/KLCK.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...AR
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