225
FXUS61 KILN 090712
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
312 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED STORMS, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS RETURN TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN WILL BRING
RENEWED DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN ANAMOLOUSLY-DEEP AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO
THE SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW
FIELDS AND FORCING, ALLOWING FOR NE-TO-SW BAND OF SHRA, WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA, TO MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THE ILN FA
IN PARTS OF IL/IN/KY AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND BEYOND. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVE
LATE IN THE DAY NEAR/W OF I-71. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH, WITH ISO HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION TO BE
REALIZED TODAY IS GOING TO BE E OF I-71, SO THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS. DO THINK THAT AN ISOLATED
INSTANCE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
THROUGH PARTS OF NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OH BY
MID AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR /SEVERE/ STORMS APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. DO THINK THE SPC SWODY1 MRGL
OUTLOOK IS WELL PLACED IN FAR E/SE PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY END FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE W INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
HEAVY INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME, WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (WARMEST CONDITIONS
FAVORED IN NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA BY MIDDAY). FOR MANY LOCALES (NEAR/W OF
I-71), DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PEAK AFTER 21Z AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EVOLVES LATE IN THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY/SUNNY LATE IN THE DAYTIME, A NARROW
AXIS OF CLOUDS/ISO SHRA COINCIDENT WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL DRIFT
TO THE SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE A FEW ISO SHRA LINGERING ABOUT NEAR/W OF I-71 THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES ALTOGETHER LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS /MUCH/ DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE W. WE WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AS THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAYTIME AMIDST A WELL-MIXED BL AND
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. PWATS WILL DIP TO ABOUT ~50-60% OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXTENDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI, THEN SOUTH TOWARDS
ARKLATX. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY MON WITH NW FLOW FOUND
IN ITS WAKE.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE CWA AND THEN ORIENTING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT AND THURS. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS W-E NORTH OF
THE CWA EARLY THURS AND BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE,
MOVES S, AND ORIENTS ITSELF MORE SW-NE FROM SUN-MON. A SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE CWA ON MON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MARKING THE END OF THAT
PARTICULAR WETTER PATTERN. THE WEEKEND WON'T SEE PREVAILING PRECIP
AS BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE MORE THAN LIKELY. THERE JUST DOESN'T SEEM
TO BE A SIGNAL FROM FRI THROUGH EARLY MON THAT BREAKS THROUGH AS A
DRY PERIOD. MODELS OFFER WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND, SO CONFIDENCE COULD BE BETTER.
TEMPERATURES RISE AND MAX OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THURS, THEN
DROP SLOWLY TO FINISH WITH SUN-MON CLOSER TO 80 ACROSS THE CWA. LOW
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TUES NIGHT RISE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S FRI AND
SAT AND LEVEL OFF TO THE MID 60S SUN NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHRA, WITH ISO EMBEDDED TSRA, ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WSW IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT KDAY EARLIEST BEFORE SPREADING TO
THE E RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. STEADY SHRA WILL PROMOTE A
MOISTENING OF THE BL, ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF PCPN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SHRA
SHIELD WILL SHIFT E BY 21Z, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR ISO
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP /BEHIND/ THE PRIMARY BAND BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z-22Z,
SO HAVE KEPT THE SHRA POTENTIAL GOING IN THE FCST A BIT LONGER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY/PAST 21Z-22Z, WITH SKIES
GOING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING. THIS BEING SAID, CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WITH THIS, THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A VERY
NARROW/THIN LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW
LEADING UP TO 06Z TUESDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT KDAY FOR NOW
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, TOO.
LIGHT SW WIND AROUND 5KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS,
COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND STILL PLENTY OF NEAR-GROUND
MOISTURE, WILL ALLOW FOR BR AND VSBYS REDUCTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS,
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS, BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN
BY/PAST SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...KC
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