974
FXUS61 KILN 230659
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
259 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN MID WEEK AND INCREASE AS WE
HEAD INTO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE CENTER OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. READINGS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN SUNDAY'S
HIGHS.
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES BRIEFLY REACH 105 - SOUTH OF
I-70, BUT IT LOOKS ISOLATED ENOUGH - SO THE CURRENT HEADLINE - A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONTINUED.
SOME OF THE CAM AND GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING AND VERY LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
SPRAWLING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY. HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S
TUESDAY AFTER LOWS IN THE MID 70S. THE HIGH HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 105. THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE CONTINUES. HAVE
ALLOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 500H RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING OUT, THANKS TO WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW ACROSS CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HEAT INDICES
ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY (LOW
100S). HOWEVER, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK FORCING TO INTRODUCE POPS,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70. SBCABE SHOULD BE PRETTY ROBUST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKING WEEK AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE ZONAL, WITH EPISODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
THESE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING (COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY) TO ALLOW FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM MODES. MACHINE
LEARNING HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ATLANTIC COAST FOR
SEVERE ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK.
SO, IT DOES SEEM THAT WE MIGHT BE HEADING INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.
AS FAR AS THE HEAT GOES... RIGHT NOW, THE BLEND STILL HOLDS ONTO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER
90S/LOW 100S THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK (PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INTRODUCTION FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST, SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON EXTENDING ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT LEADING TO SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG. EXPECT SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062-070>072-077-078.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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