024
FXUS61 KILN 232341
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
741 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BOTH WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH EVER SO SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK WESTERLIES TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ANY MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNAL PEAK.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AND NIGHT TO NIGHT IN
HIGHS AND LOWS AS WELL AS DEW POINTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH, BUT NOT ALL OF THE
AREA. NBM VALUES LOOK SLIGHTLY OVERDONE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HREF PROBABILITIES OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 HEAT INDEX
ARE 60 PERCENT OR GREATER FROM THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METRO
SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ELSEWHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, IN SOME PLACES, NOTABLY WEST CENTRAL OHIO,
THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY, AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA, MUCH LOWER.
DESPITE THE REAL POTENTIAL OF FALLING BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD IN THESE PLACES, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THERE IS A
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF VERY WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS,
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A MIX
OF 80S AND 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
CURRENTLY HEAT HEADLINES GO OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID WEEK ON THAT COULD
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR NOT HITTING HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. DUE
TO THIS DID NOT EXTEND ANY HEAT HEADLINES. NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 71 HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO HIT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
THE OTHER THREATS IN THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD ARE AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE WORKING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME ARE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THURSDAY INDICATE
THAT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND THEREFORE THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. FRIDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER WILL FOCUS
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT POINT INCREASES.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE NBM FOR THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. SCATTERED CU WILL THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062-070>072-077-078.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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