608
FXUS61 KILN 241406
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1006 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
ONGOING FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A FEW
POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, PARTICULARLY NEAR/N OF I-70. HOWEVER, SOME ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, INCLUDING NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR. SOME
SPOTS WILL HAVE A DOWNPOUR WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOST LOCALES REMAIN
HOT/DRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONTINUED.
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST-NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CLOSER TO THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE WEAK WESTERLIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND STALLS OUT WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF FRONT LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DIURNAL PEAK.
NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHTLY OVERDONE AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR
90 NORTH TO THE MID 90S SOUTH. HREF PROBABILITIES OF REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 HEAT INDEX ARE GENERALLY 60 PERCENT OR GREATER FROM
I-70 SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE AREA - EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTH.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL OF FALLING BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
IN THESE PLACES, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THRU WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF HOT DAYS AND
WARM NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 500H RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE AND DAMPEN OUT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ZONALLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
MUCH LOOSER GRADIENT NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/ATLANTIC COAST REGION
WHERE THE LEFTOVER HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, WE'RE IN FOR A RINSE, WASH, REPEAT PATTERN AS
MULTIPLE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LARGER, ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN TO OUR NORTH. THESE WILL INTRODUCE EPISODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED, WITH POPS INCREASING WITH DIURNAL
SWINGS AS AMPLE DAYTIME SURFACE INSTABILITY BUILDS IN. EACH
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE WEAK FORCING, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT
WE MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THIS, MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS AROUND 140% OF NORMAL, SO STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
AS FAR AS HEAT GOES, THE BLEND CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES EACH DAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S,
TICKLING 100 IN SPOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND EVEN INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70. FOR NOW, HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES GIVEN THE
EPISODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER... DON'T LET THIS FOOL YOU-
IT WILL STILL BE HOT. UNCOMFORTABLY HOT. COMPOUNDING THIS, WE'RE NOW
SEVERAL DAYS INTO INTENSE HEAT AND BY ALL SIGNALS, IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN WE MAY FINALLY GET A DEEPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BREAK UP THE
PATTERN AND CARRY THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. THIS LEAD TO SOME VERY PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HUMID AIRMASS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND BEST
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE TAF'S AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TODAY AND THEN DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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