940
FXUS61 KILN 241809
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE CENTER OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SRN OH/TN VLYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRETCH OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE LOCALLY, WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 90S TODAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
POP AMIDST A MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINS
INCREDIBLY WEAK, SO INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE LL/DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, THE
LL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DOWNBURST/GUSTY
WINDS FROM ANY OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SO /VERY/ ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. DO THINK THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED/SPOTTY IN NATURE, BUT WITH A /VERY/ FAVORABLE DCAPE
ENVIRONMENT, CERTAINLY SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL EXISTS.
THE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET, YIELDING
TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ON WEDNESDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUBTLY FLATTEN,
ALLOWING FOR A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW TO EVOLVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION INTO THE DAYTIME. THIS, ALONG WITH
A STRONGLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WILL AGAIN
LEND ITSELF TO SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL ALONG
REMNANT STORM OUTFLOWS/BOUNDARIES. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW /MAY/
ALLOW FOR SUBTLE INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY), ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THIS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN NATURE.
DO THINK THAT THE MRGL SWODY2 FROM SPC IS WELL-PLACED AND WELL-
WARRANTED GIVEN THE SETUP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED
SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FROM EC IN THROUGH WC/CENTRAL OH NEAR
MID AFTERNOON WHERE THE BETTER FLOW WILL EVOLVE, ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.
FOR LOCALES CLOSER TO THE OH RVR AND FURTHER S, WHERE STORM ACTIVITY
MAY REMAIN MORE LIMITED AND BE CONFINED TO LATER INTO THE DAY, TEMPS
WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 100S. FURTHER TO N, ALTHOUGH CLOUD/STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INHIBIT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING 100F, WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UNCHANGED FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING STORM COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. EITHER WAY, MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S (N OF I-70) TO
LOWER 100S (NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR).
THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE
ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES DUE TO OUTFLOWS/GUST FRONTS PROGRESSIVELY FROM
NW TO SE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AMIDST MUGGY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. ON MONDAY, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL FROM
N-S. THIS OCCURS EARLIER PER THE ECMWF DURING THE AFTERNOON, IN THE
EVENING PER THE CANADIAN MODEL, AND OVERNIGHT LOOKING AT THE GFS.
THESE LOWER HEIGHTS RESULT IN THE COOLEST READINGS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS VERSUS THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SIMILARLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S DROP SLIGHTLY ON MON
NIGHT WITH READINGS NEAR 70.
BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST TIME, A BROAD L/W TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT TUE. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
BETTER DROP IN UPPER HEIGHTS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MARGINALLY COOLER
FORECAST - MID 80S TUE, MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME ARE STRONGLY CORRELATED TO THE
NATURAL DIURNAL, WITH CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND TOPPING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE
FORECAST OCCUR ON MON/MON EVENING.
BEING THE LAST 24-36 HOURS OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST HAVE ALL OF THE
AIRMASS CHANGES AND GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS NORMAL WITH A STRONGER
INFLUENCE AS TIME PROGRESSES, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. ATTM, THE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST IN TIMING, WITH THE OVERALL INDICATIONS OF A
CHANGE OCCURRING LATE IN THE FORECAST HAVING A LITTLE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ISO SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ADDED A PROB30 FOR THE
LOCAL SITES GIVEN POTENTIAL. SCT VFR CU, ALONG WITH ANY ISO
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY, WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME. SOME BR/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR KLUK.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WILL BE THE CASE TODAY.
LIGHT SW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF EACH DAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...KC
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