316
FXUS61 KILN 251645
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
ONGOING FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AS MUGGY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CU ALREADY SPROUTING AMIDST
A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS AN EARLY SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME
TODAY -- SCATTERED (BUT DISORGANIZED) STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER AND IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION THAN WAS THE CASE TUESDAY.
THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT EVERYONE IS GOING TO GET RAIN, BUT THE
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER TODAY, WITH NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM AND COLLIDING WITH SEVERAL SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, DOWNBURST-DRIVEN GUSTY TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
WITH PWATS ~150% OF SEASONAL NORMS, ANY SLOW-MOVING ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATING
FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CENTER OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WILL CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE, WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE TODAY.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY,
ALLOWING FOR A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MIDLEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP INTO THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. FAVORABLE DCAPE VALUES
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
ONGOING DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THEY
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE HUMID
ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN EXPECTED AS MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE DCAPE VALUES ISOLD STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION, THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT FROM 90 NORTH TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN MAY LOWER HEAT
INDICES SOME IN THE NORTH, THE SOUTH IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD
OVER AND PRECIPITATION. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE SOUTH MAY
APPROACH 100 AND THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THRU
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE 500H RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE,
THOUGH FLOW WILL HAVE FLATTENED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'RE IN FOR A RINSE, WASH, REPEAT PATTERN.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGER, ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
INTRODUCING EPISODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
POPS WILL INCREASE WITH EACH DIURNAL SWING AS AMPLE DAYTIME SURFACE
INSTABILITY BUILDS IN. EACH SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE WEAK FORCING,
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE CONTENT LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH,
AROUND 140% OF NORMAL, SO STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
AS FAR AS HEAT GOES, THE BLEND CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES EACH DAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S,
TICKLING 100 IN SPOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND EVEN INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70. THE HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME, PARTICULARLY
FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, BUT WOULD LIKE TO HOLD OFF TO SEE
HOW THE PRECIPITATION INFLUENCES THINGS.
HOWEVER... DON'T LET THIS FOOL YOU- IT WILL STILL BE HOT.
UNCOMFORTABLY HOT. COMPOUNDING THIS, WE'RE NOW SEVERAL DAYS INTO
INTENSE HEAT AND BY ALL SIGNALS, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN WE MAY FINALLY GET A DEEPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BREAK UP THE
PATTERN AND CARRY THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY THROUGH ABOUT 22Z BEFORE
COVERAGE WANES RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO TSRA AT NRN
SITES WHILE MAINTAINED A PROB30 AT SRN SITES GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR
DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE/TIMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OF COURSE, RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH ABRUPT CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
BEFORE SOME BR/VSBY REDUCTIONS AGAIN DEVELOP AT KLUK (AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN KILN) IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD/BEYOND SUNSET, WITH JUST A
FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. VFR CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AGAIN PAST 15Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF EACH DAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
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